Navigating Uncertainty

Towards a Post-Brexit Trade and Development Agenda

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Navigating Uncertainty
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Series Title: Economic Paper
Number within series: 97
Publication date: 26 March 2018
ISBN: 978-1-84929-176-7
Pages: 60

‘Extreme uncertainty’ is a Brexit catchphrase that applies fully to the UK’s future trade relationship with developing countries - which includes many Commonwealth member countries - as well as with the remaining EU members.

This compilation of essays offers timely and expert commentary on how a new UK trade policy towards the EU and developing countries could be designed and implemented. The essays unbundle complex issues and offer a context for the current debate, as well as providing a framework within which to assess and discuss the ongoing negotiations.

The collection is based on a workshop held at the Commonwealth Secretariat in London in early 2017, as part of the Economic and Social Research Council-funded project entitled 'Governance and Economic Integration through Free Trade Agreements'.

ContentsExpand or collapse me
Abbreviations and Acronyms

Chapter 1. Introduction
by Sangeeta Khorana and Brendan Vickers

Chapter 2. ‘Global Britain’, trade and development: Issues and priorities post-Brexit
by Brendan Vickers
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Brexit implications for developing countries
2.3 The UK’s trade regime for developing countries
2.4 Towards development-friendly trade post-Brexit
2.5 Trade preference options for non-LDC developing countries
2.6 Brexit, the UK and Commonwealth trade
2.7 Conclusions

Chapter 3. Trade and regulation in relations with the EU and third countries after Brexit
by Peter Holmes
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Customs union, customs agreement or FTA?
3.3 Prospects for an FTA with the EU: Deep or shallow?
3.4 Deals with third countries
3.5 What would a ‘Trump Atlantic’ trade agreement be like?
3.6 Interim arrangements?
3.7 Conclusions
Postscript

Chapter 4. Brexit and Global Value Chains: The costs of transition to new trade governance structures
by Jodie Keane
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The role of the UK within Factory EU
4.3 Moving further than the EU

Chapter 5. The impact of Brexit on global value chains and trade governance
by Louise Curran
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Trade preferences and GVCs: Potential impacts of change
5.3 Negotiating FTAs: Prioritising depth or speed?
5.4 Highlighting vulnerabilities: Dependence on UK preferential trade
5.5 Conclusion

Chapter 6. Be Prepared: Trade Policy Research for Brexit
by Christopher Stevens and Jane Kennan
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The research problem: the two big unknowns
6.3 The research approach
6.4 Conclusions

Chapter 7. Conclusion and way forward
by Brendan Vickers and Sangeeta Khorana